As telegraphed by many, the authorities’ attempts to deal with inflation has started to unsettle markets. Since monetary policy famously acts with long & variable lags, we should expect an extended period of uncertainty. Investors should remember that the night is darkest before the dawn.
A ‘Santa Claus rally’ sent risk assets rallying into the new year, as markets doubted central bankers’ resolve to keep raising rates. Will 2023 bring falling inflation and a soft landing, or disappointment for investors?
As 2023 begins, the US equity market remains well above its long-term averages. Amid a mass of contradictions, rising uncertainty is creating more opportunities for patient investors.
It’s been an “interesting” 2022, and we think 2023 will be more of the same. Read our reasoning, as well as our responses to recent client questions in our year-end investor Q&A.
In our latest Quarterly Asset Class Update, we break down global markets by the numbers, offering thoughts as to where markets could be headed as 2022 heads into the home stretch.
Bear hunting. Head of Investments, Ben Ashby analyses the different kinds of bear markets and what they can look like. Plus why political instability in the U.K. is a reflection of deeper changes in voter patterns.
Henderson Rowe’s Head of Investments, Ben Ashby, analyses the UK’s recent mini-budget, the context behind it and the subsequent moves in the Pound and the Gilt market. The UK is having its time in the doghouse, but we do not expect it to be alone, nor to be the worst dog.
Henderson Rowe’s Head of Investments, Ben Ashby, examines some of the challenges faced by the next British Prime Minister. Faced with two unappealing choices, neither seems to offer the sort of strategic vision required. Yet as Sunak’s campaign stalls, it confirms our belief much of it was style over substance.
Stagflation fear sent stocks into a bear market in Q2, while bonds tanked as the Fed debated a full-point rate hike after June’s jarring 9.1% rise in US CPI. How might the fight against inflation unfold in the second half?
March marked ‘lift-off’ for the Fed, which commenced tightening, hiking rates a quarter-point. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocking energy markets and COVID shutting down Shanghai, is a soft landing at risk?
Red-hot inflation going into 2022 has pulled forward the Fed’s timetable for tightening, just as a surge in Omicron cases threatens to hit growth. How will markets react to rate hikes in the year ahead?
Shipping bottlenecks and strained supply chains contributed to a spike in prices during Q3. Will hawkish central bankers end the party for stock and bond investors, or might such fears turn out to be ‘transitory’, as well?
Global economic rebound from the pandemic sent stocks, bonds, and commodities soaring in the second quarter. Could a big jump in prices and the prospect of rising rates put a year-long rally at risk?
Vaccine rollouts and improving sentiment have prompted market rotation to start the year. With stretched stock valuations, turbulent bond markets, and flashes of inflation, how will reopening and recovery play out?
In 2020, a black swan disrupted the global economy, pushed macroeconomic policy to extremes, and spurred a growth rally that saw amateur investors handily beating the pros. How do markets sit as we enter a new year?
As we hurtle through the final quarter of a very strange year, how are surging cases of COVID-19, rising political uncertainty, and major shifts in economic policy impacting investors and markets?
Markets have staged a remarkable recovery since their March lows. Now all eyes are on the global economy to catch up. With the virus under control and borders reopened last month, Europe should see economic activity pick up.
What will the post COVID-19 world look like? Pre-pandemic trends combined with large fiscal stimuli, increasing efficiency by working from home and many other factors will shape what changes lie ahead.
The US-China trade war, low interest rates, taxing US tech giants… Read all about it in our newly released quarterly commentary – including how the year-end snowy heights came straight at equity investors in a truly monster Santa Rally.
Brexit, HK, Middle East, Trade Wars: Markets are being better behaved than the politicians.
More than the weather is heating up. The EU’s threat to Swiss independence makes China’s view on Hong Kong look benign, while Iran’s militarized response to US pressure and the US-China Trade War are moving even Brexit off the front page. The US bull market is now at an all-time high.
The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was expected to be more pragmatic than his predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. He was leading the way by delivering four rate hikes in his eleven-month tenure. Enter the December 2018 sell-off.